Yes, but Can They Make Money?

As Michelle and Liz inquired, what are the box-office prospects for some of these movies?

Alas, Tribeca doesn’t have that great a track record. Transamerica, from 2005, remains the most successful money-maker to date, with $9.5 million in ticket sales and two Oscar nominations. In the past two years, a documentary has made the Best Documentary roster at the Oscars, with Taxi to the Dark Side winning for 2007.

Of my baker’s dozen, Savage Grace and Gunnin’ for That #1 Spot have release dates of May 30 and June 27, respectively, but subject matter and odd opening time likely will hurt both. Why not save Gunnin’ for Labor Day, during the Elite 24 tournament, or either the start or finish of college-basketball season? Baghdad High and The Zen of Bobby V will play on cable television later this year – HBO for Baghdad, ESPN for Bobby V – which is where both belong, as does Milosevic on Trial. (That’s played on TV overseas.)

If the Weinstein Co. picks up Trucker, expect a loud Oscar push for Michelle Monaghan. She’s very good, but not quite that great, and Harvey no longer has the Midas touch. I’d love to see Fighter receive a U.S. release and be marketed to a teen audience, but sadly, I’m not sure people can accept reading subtitles if it isn't Chinese kung-fu. (Fighter is Danish/Turkish kung-fu, though. ...) Could Theater of War ever attract anyone outside New York? Its subject matter seems limited, and it feels like a two-week run at Film Forum. I’m not sure how This Is Not a Robbery would work in a theater - TV would be better, but where? The same goes for Eden.

The Africa trio – Kassim the Dream, Pray the Devil Back to Hell and I Am Because We Are – has the biggest hurdles. No matter how much critical acclaim they receive, how much star power is behind them, how much they’re in the news, Africa documentaries simply don’t do well at the box office. Kassim has a better chance because it has the viewer friendly sports angle, but even that probably won’t be enough. Documentaries, while chic, don’t attract audiences these days, likely because the outside world is weighty enough. They’re worth a release, but an eager viewer and his or her friends need to spread the word the first week, before the movies disappear to DVD.